Tenant Migration, Dubai
To get a general idea of the migration flow of tenants to different areas of Dubai, which is mostly driven by a change of prices, I have looked at the DEWA move in and out requests since January 1st 2019 to date (data now available from propertymonitor.ae)
As shown below, the population has been increasing within Dubai, this may be blue-collar workers, but with the slow down in construction in the past 2 years so we can presume the majority are not.
Dubai Marina, JBR and Bluewater Island received 1,242 move in requests and 1,417 move out requests leaving a migration balance of -175, the average tenancy duration was 705 days. (Nearly 2 years). This tells us that although the Marina area remains in high demand for tenants there are more people moving out, so where are they going?
Generally, through personal experience, when prices drop we see tenants moving from the Marina to more usually pricier areas like the Palm or Downtown. For 2019 so far, there has only been a surplus of 28 new tenants moving to the Palm, 379 moving in requests and 351 moving out requests with an average of 685 days tenancy duration.
In a change to the norm when you look at the villa areas we can see that, potentially, tenants are taking advantage of lower rental prices to upgrade to more space.
Jumeirah Village Circle saw the most positive tenant migration with 803 move in requests against 561 move out requests giving a surplus of 242 new tenants to the area. The average duration of tenancies in JVC is 636 days.
The largest positive shift was in Akoya and Mudon areas, an additional 336 tenants moved into the area in 2019, this may be due to recent supply and hand over of new properties along with lower prices. The areas received 421 move in requests and only 85 move out requests with an average of 448 days tenancy duration.
Jebal Ali Village had the largest negative shift with 608 move in requests and 1,175 move out requests, a minus of 567 tenants leaving opposed to taking new tenancies. This is not surprising as many have most likely taken advantage of more 'prime' areas with better amenities and facilities.
In conclusion, due to lower pricing people are moving from the completed areas like the Palm, Marina and Downtown to newer communities due to lower prices, higher spec properties and facilities, even though they are further away from the centre of business activity.
Downtown, Marina, JBR, The Palm, Business Bay and Emirates Living had a total of 2,945 move in requests and 3,049 move out requests which equates to -104 tenants leaving these areas.
Whereas Akoya, Mudon, JVC, Arabian Ranches 2, Arabian Ranches 3, The Villa, Al Furjan, Town Square, Dubai World Central, Sustainable City had 1,417 move in requests and only 710 move out requests, an additional 707 people moved into tenancies in this area in 2019,
These figures give us a general idea of the migration of tenants throughout Dubai, there are many other factors to take into account if you were to break it down into more detail.
If you would like more information on any of the data or information provided in this email or previous emails please do not hesitate to contact me by replying to this email.
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